Framework para análise da viabilidade téncnico-econômica de sistemas de geração distribuída fotovoltaica conectados à rede elétrica

Abstract

This study proposes a methodological framework for analyzing the technical and economic feasibility of grid-connected photovoltaic systems for micro and mini distributed generation (MGDG) within the current Brazilian regulatory context. Based on Law No. 14,300/2022 and the resolutions issued by ANEEL (Resolution No. 1,000/2021 and No. 1,059/2023), the study structures a step-by-step model that integrates regulatory assumptions, technical parameters, and financial indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), and Discounted Payback Period. To validate the model, a computational prototype was developed and applied to case studies involving four utility companies (CELESC, CEMIG, CPFL, and COELBA), comparing two sizing scenarios (S1 and S2). The results show that the more conservative scenario proves more advantageous for low-consumption profiles, whereas the oversized configuration yields better performance for intermediate consumption levels (up to 7,500 kWh/month), with NPVs ranging from R$ -3.332,00 to R$ 381.675,00 depending on the utility company and local tax rates. The tool produced results consistent with those of established industry software, with an average deviation of less than 8%, indicating robustness. The study highlights the importance of regionalization and the consideration of tax and tariff variables in decision-making processes, contributing to the strategic planning of distributed generation in Brazil.