Comparação entre métodos de previsão de demanda para carga granel sólida no porto de Paranaguá

Abstract

The market is becoming increasingly global. The evolution of information and transportation made the exchange of products profitable. Consequently, the transportation responsible for the movement of cargo to foreign lands influences directly the quality and the service to be provided by producer and reciever firm. Therefore this study is proposed to obtain the forecast demand by different methods in order to understand future demand in the bulk solids industry shipped at one of the main ports of the country and at the same time, the importance of having appropriate infrastructure. In this way, the case study of applied nature and quantitative approach, in question, presented the comparison of the performance of methods that consider seasonality, tendency or the absence of them to obtain the equation that returned the smallest deviation in relation to the demand, originating from the Minimization of deviations obtained from linear programming, and the possible causes of its superiority over other methods.