Previsão estatística dos custos e tributos referentes ao preço da soja no estado no Paraná

Abstract

With the increasing demand for the substitution of certain foods, soy enters the market heavily, as it gives rise to several other nutrient-rich products. Occupying the fourth world position of production, the soybean became the main grain produced in Brazil. The main objective of this work was to analyze and predict possible scenarios for the price and tax burden related to the commercialization of soybeans in the state of Paraná. Statistical forecasting software was used to evaluate and select the best statistical models with low prediction errors. It was also compared the variation of the tax burden with the prices during the studied period that was from 2007 to 2018. With the presentation of these results, it is intended to help the people and companies related to the agribusiness for the knowledge of the behavior and the forecast of future prices as well as changes in tax burdens.