Previsão de falências: proposição de um modelo baseado na análise dinâmica

Abstract

The financial intermediary is an important agent to the economic development. It is responsible to promote an environment where the financial transactions can happen, allowing the existence of trust in the market. To carry out its role correctly, it needs tool that help it in the decision taking. With the increase of market complexity, these tools need to be effective and efficient. From this need, some authors proposed bankruptcy-forecasting tools that started to be used, mostly, in credit analysis. These tools were created with the static analysis. In the view of its limitations, this work proposes a bankruptcy-forecasting model based on the dynamic analysis. This kind of balance sheet analysis was created with the objective of mitigate the static analysis limitations. So, this work investigated if a bankruptcyforecasting model based in the dynamic analysis could be more effective than the ones based on the traditional analysis. The result indicates to a prediction capacity of the dynamic analysis higher than the traditional analysis.