Modelagem da distribuição potencial da Virola surinamensis (Ucuúba) a partir de variáveis topoclimáticas visando à restauração de áreas de preservação permanente na Amazônia Legal

Abstract

The intensification of deforestation in the Legal Amazon (Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Pará, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Roraima, Tocantins, and part of Maranhão) has increased the demand for effective ecological restoration strategies in Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs), especially through the selection of species compatible with the region’s environmental conditions. In this context, this study aimed to model and map the potential distribution of Virola surinamensis (ucuúba) based on topoclimatic variables (annual precipitation, mean temperature, water deficit, altitude, slope, among others), in order to identify priority areas and environmentally suitable zones for its use in APP restoration projects in the Legal Amazon. A total of 1,281 occurrence records of the species were used, along with climatic data (TerraClimate, 1991–2020), topographic variables (altitude, latitude, and longitude), and adapted Köppen climate classifications (Af1, Af2, Am1, Am2, and Aw3). The modeling process included correlation analysis, multiple linear regression with stepwise selection, overdispersion testing, statistical validation (adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted R²) = 0.922; root mean square error (RMSE) = 3.402), geostatistical interpolation, and Kernel density estimation for continuous spatial prediction of environmental suitability. The results indicated that 52% of the Legal Amazon presents high environmental suitability for the species, 25% shows moderate potential, and 23% has low or no potential. The highest suitability is associated with Af (equatorial rainforest climate) and Am (monsoon climate) types, characterized by high annual precipitation and low water deficit. It was concluded that Virola surinamensis exhibits broad topoclimatic suitability across the region, particularly in riparian environments, highlighting its strong potential for use in APP restoration projects, contributing to hydrological stability, forest structural recovery, and biodiversity conservation.