Impacto da Lei nº 14.300/2022 na geração distribuída fotovoltaica comercial e uma comparação com o mercado livre de energia

Abstract

The growing demand for electricity in Brazil, combined with rising electricity tariffs and the increasing participation of renewable energy sources in the national energy matrix, has driven commercial consumers to seek more efficient and economically viable alternatives for energy supply. In this context, photovoltaic distributed generation and the Free Energy Market (ACL - Free Contracting Environment) have emerged as widely adopted strategies for cost reduction and greater energy autonomy. With the enactment of Law No. 14.300/2022, which established the legal framework for microgeneration and distributed mini generation, significant changes were introduced to the Electric Energy Compensation System (SCEE), particularly through the gradual implementation of charges related to the distribution component known as “Fio B,” associated with the Distribution System Use Tariff (TUSD). These changes directly affected the economic attractiveness of grid-connected photovoltaic systems. Given this scenario, the objective of this study was to analyze the financial impacts of Law No. 14.300/2022 on commercial photovoltaic distributed generation, comparing its economic feasibility with migration to the Free Energy Market and with the financial investment of an equivalent amount of capital in an investment product linked to the SELIC interest rate. The study was conducted based on a commercial consumer unit classified under Group A4, located in the municipality of Guarujá, São Paulo, and supplied at medium voltage by Neoenergia Elektro. The methodology employed consisted of a bibliographic review, analysis of real electricity consumption data, and comparative modeling of three investment scenarios: full investment of the available capital at 100% of the SELIC rate; migration to the Free Energy Market with reinvestment of the monthly savings achieved; and implementation of an on-grid photovoltaic system with reinvestment of the savings generated. The economic evaluation was carried out using the indicators Payback Period, Net Present Value (NPV), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), considering a 10-year analysis horizon and a Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) equivalent to the historical average SELIC rate of 0.8249% per month. The results showed that the most advantageous alternative was migration to the Free Energy Market combined with the reinvestment of the savings obtained. This scenario presented a positive NPV of R$37,828.02, an IRR of 0.8638% per month, a payback period of approximately 1.03 years, and an accumulated amount of R$2,271,153.04 at the end of the 10-year period. The full financial investment of the capital at 100% of the SELIC rate resulted in an accumulated amount of R$2,143,911.75. In contrast, the investment in photovoltaic distributed generation presented a negative NPV of -R$442,350.70, an IRR of only 0.1578% per month, and an estimated payback period of 14.8 years, demonstrating economic infeasibility within the analyzed 10-year horizon. In conclusion, the results indicate that, for the consumption profile studied and under the current regulatory conditions, migration to the Free Contracting Environment represents the most economically attractive alternative for commercial consumers. The progressive implementation of the Fio B charge, introduced by the regulatory framework, significantly reduced the profitability of photovoltaic distributed generation, highlighting the importance of integrating technical, economic, and regulatory aspects into corporate energy planning.