Impacto da volatilidade dos preços de milho e cana-de-açúcar no custo de produção de etanol no Brasil

Abstract

Brazil stands as the world's second-largest ethanol producer, with production reaching 36.83 billion liters in 2024, primarily utilizing sugarcane and corn (20.9% of production). Raw material acquisition represents 60% to 70% of total production costs, making mill profitability vulnerable to market fluctuations. This study aimed to analyze the impact of corn and sugarcane price volatility on the final cost of ethanol production in Brazil. Through literature review, historical price series analysis (2018-2024), sensitivity analysis, and scenario simulations, results demonstrated that sugarcane prices increased 84.4% during the period, with a coefficient of variation of 22.05%, while corn exhibited higher volatility (28.39%). Sensitivity analysis revealed that 20% variations in sugarcane prices result in approximately 14% variation in total ethanol costs. Simulations showed virtually null operating margins for sugarcane mills under baseline scenarios, while corn ethanol presented losses in all scenarios except the optimistic one. The study concludes that raw material price volatility constitutes the primary financial risk factor for ethanol mills, making risk management strategies imperative for sector sustainability.