Modelagem de nicho ecológico para espécies de planta ameaçadas no estado do Paraná visando a identificação e preservação de áreas chave (hotspots)

Abstract

This study aims to present the application of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) as an essential tool for identifying and conserving critical areas (hotspots) that harbor plant species at risk of extinction in the State of Paraná. Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), the relationship between the occurrence of these species and environmental variables, such as anthropogenic, physical, and bioclimatic factors, was analyzed. To select the best models, the Kappa index was used, allowing the identification of the accuracy of species distribution predictions among the 24 variables employed for each species. A survey was conducted at the HCF herbarium, and a database with these variables was created. The modeling enabled the construction of maps highlighting areas with the highest potential to support endangered species. The results emphasize the importance of ENM as a research tool and provide key insights for conservation practices and sustainable management, which are essential for preserving Paraná’s biodiversity.