Estudo das inundações através da projeção de cenários futuros de urbanização em Francisco Beltrão/PR

Abstract

Soil sealing caused by increased urbanization in Brazilian cities has caused sharp peaks in the flow of rainwater, often causing floods also related to soil use and occupation procedures and terrain morphology. In this sense, this research aims to identify the areas susceptible to flooding in the urban perimeter of Francisco Beltrão/PR linked to the urban expansion process that occurred in the hydrographic basin of the Urutago river. When considering the current and future scenarios of land use and occupation in accordance with the Municipal Master Plan, the adapted method of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) will be used in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment through geoprocessing techniques. The AHP multicriteria method was used as a strategic management tool to carry out the diagnosis and evaluation for decision making, by assigning weights and their relative importance. The map of the current situation indicated the areas sensitive to urban flooding and proved to be consistent with the reality of the occurrence of this type of event in the municipality. The areas of greatest sensitivity are concentrated in the northwest region of the study area and mainly cover the Luther King and Miniguaçu neighborhoods. The increase in SF1 (Future Situation 1) and SF2 (Future Situation 2) in urban areas directly affected the change in sensitivity degrees from low to medium or high to very high. This effect is consistent with urban sprawl and consequently increases soil sealing, runoff and areas exposed to urban flooding. The expansion of the urban area in this direction of the municipality leads to an increase in soil sealing, a criterion classified by experts as the second most important for the occurrence of urban flooding.