Usina de biomadeira para tratamento de resíduos sólidos urbanos em município de pequeno porte: uma análise da viabilidade financeira utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo

Abstract

The generation of solid waste is an inherent condition of human survival. Over time, more waste is generated by people, according to their desires, habits, increase in income, among others. However, this implies for the municipalities, a series of difficulties for the adequate management of their USW. Small cities show great difficulties in managing their environmental liabilities generated in post-consumption, due to the lack of satisfactory collection, financial self-sufficiency and high costs, which results, in many cases, in an inadequate final disposal of USW. Based on this reality, this study aims to propose an analysis of the financial feasibility of a plant to transform USW into biowood, focusing on municipalities with up to 20.000 inhabitants in Brazil. For the analysis of financial feasibility, it is intended to use the financial indicators: Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), using the Minimum Attractiveness Rate (MAR) as the Discount Rate. Thus, through the Monte Carlo Simulation, it is intended to understand that if a possible fluctuation in the sale price of a kilo of biowood by 20% can impact the NPV and IRR financial indicators, in order to make the enterprise financially unfeasible. The research methodology has a qualitative and quantitative approach, divided into two phases. Starting from the hypotheticaldeductive method, in the first phase, the approach is qualitative, of exploratory purpose, and bibliographic and documental procedure for the collection of information and research data. In the second phase, the approach is quantitative, with an explanatory objective, with na Ex-Post-Facto procedure. In order to prove the financial viability of the technological solution, an analysis of the result of the Discounted Cash Flow of 60 months was used, using an AMR of 8,01% a.a. For the Monte Carlo Simulation, the Crystal Ball® Software was used. For a Confidence Interval of 95%, and 10.000 iterations, in the scenario with a 20% increase and decrease in the sales price of the product, it did not significantly change the NPV and IRR values, proving the financial viability of the project, even in moment of uncertainty, concluding that this project can be presented as an alternative for the treatment of USW in small municipalities.