Sistemática para previsão de resultados baseada em cenários aplicada em uma cooperativa de crédito

Abstract

In an increasingly competitive market, business managers need strategies, action plans, visioning the future, seeking competitive advantages over their competitors in the market. Accounting provides companies with accounting statements that often point to past numbers, with information not so significant for managers to develop effective strategies for their companies. The objective of this work is to apply the Scenario-Based Results Forecasting System in a Credit Cooperative in the western region of Santa Catarina, to predict the results of the institution for 3 years. The research was carried out in August 2018 with the analysis of documentary data and mainly the responses of a focal group, that is, people who have interests and interests in a certain company or business, in this case were the managers of the cooperative analyzed. With the application of the systematics, the focus group identified the main variables that could impact on the cooperative’s revenues, costs, expenses and taxes and determined the potential impact of the variables on the results of the base year. Finally, it was possible to calculate the regression equations of revenues, costs, expenses and taxes and calculate the forecast of results using the scenarios predicted by managers for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 with their respective surplus values of R$ 8,159,076 , 97, R $ 11,872,443.66 and R $ 13,765,214.15. The scenario-based forecasting system proved to be very effective, presenting significant information on management assistance for the strategic planning process of the cooperative. The main strengths were the identification of the variables with the greatest potential impact on the company’s results, the quantitative measurement of the potential of each variable and the construction of linear regression equations that allow the projection of the results according to the scenarios predicted by the managers for the periods 2018, 2019 and 2020.