Sistemática para previsão de resultado baseado em cenários aplicado em uma instituição de saúde do sudoeste do Paraná

Abstract

One of the biggest business needs is strategically planning the future. Traditional models of forecasting make the analysis of the past years and with the historical series project the expected growth for the future. On the other hand, past trends and results are not guarantees of assertiveness for future forecasts, evidencing the need for complementary information or even alternative models for making forecasts with better precision and credibility. The present study was carried out in a health institution, which needs a great structural planning, since it meets the regional demand and is linked to one of the most basic needs of the human being, health. But like any other organization, it needs to manage resources, capturing them and employing them in the most appropriate way to enable the institution to have good results and can count on excellence in the care of professionals, as well as structure and equipment. In view of this, the main objective of the present study is to predict the results of this institution for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020, with the application of a result prediction tool. An analysis of the results of previous years and the identification of internal and external variables that could significantly affect the institution's revenues, costs and expenses were carried out. Thus, 5 meetings were held with the departmental managers and leaders to survey the main variables and their respective impact assessments on the institution's results, making it possible to forecast and anticipate actions to modify or maintain the scenarios. As a result, there was a need to modify the current planning, since the variables that most impacted were related to the growth of expenses at a higher level than the growth of revenues and especially the lack of reserve for events that may to be unforeseen, which in this segment occur frequently. The expected results were R $ - 1,102,466.23 loss for the year 2018 and profits of R $ 2,966,795.18 for 2019 and R $ 6,841,540.95 for the years 2019 and 2020 respectively. In the planning, a special highlight refers to the raising of private and governmental resources to guarantee reserves and investments, including personnel training to reduce turnover.