Um estudo sobre a aplicação do método ARIMA para a previsão das movimentações de veículos nos portos de Paranaguá e Santos

Abstract

The present work had as objective a study about the utilization of the ARIMA method to realize predictions of the vehicles movimentations in the ports of Paranaguá and Santos. The Box-Jenkins methodology, also know as ARIMA, is a time-series method, taking here as the object of study data about the vehicles exportation and importation in the Paranaguá and Santos ports in the lasts five years and using statistics to analyze the results and get more concrete discussions about the behavior of the generated series compared to the original historics, obtaining mean absolute percentage erros (MAPE) from 0,2902 to 0,6524, concluding that this method can be used to execute this activities, since with these values ARIMA obtained better results for three of the four series studied, compared with other methods that were used for comparative purposes at the end of this study.