Comparação de métodos multicritérios em tecnologias de geração de energia elétrica com potenciais de expansão no Brasil

Abstract

The present study aims to list electricity generation technologies in Brazil and compare indexes based on a multi-criteria, to do that the ELECTRE II model was applied and a comparison to a Dester (2012) study who used the PROMETHEE II model was made, with the criteria that belong to the dimensions: (i) Economic, (ii) Social, (iii) Environmental, and (iv) Technology. In this regard was applied the ELECTRE II multi-criteria analysis method, and later compared to results obtained through an analysis were the PROMETHEE II method was used for the same sources under the gaze of both criteria. The technologies will be evaluated based on criteria which represent the sustainability of each generation source. There are thirteen analyzed sources from the perspective of eighteen criteria. Four cases where simulated: Equitable Case: it consists in an equal weight distribution for all criteria; Technical Case: where the technical criteria are benefited; Economic Case: in which the economical criteria have greater representativity; Socio-environmental Case: where the socio-environmental dimension has greater weight. For each case preference rankings were created for the generation sources. Among obtained results there are the good performance of the UHE (Usina Hidrelétrica (in portuguese), a plant with a reservoir and run-of-the-river type) generation source and the bad performance of the UTE-ca (Usina termoelétrica a carvão mineral (in portuguese), a coal fired power plant) and UTE (Usina termoelétrica a gás natural (in porgutuese), a simple cycle thermal power plant). Among the methods comparisons it is possible to identify a prevailing difficulty elaborating rankings in ELECTRE II Method due to the possibility of tie among alternatives.