Análise por meio de métodos estatísticos para a previsão do cenário de produção e cultivo do algodão herbáceo no Brasil

Abstract

As a consequence of the national growth potential of cotton production and consumption, there is a trend towards increasing demand for cotton in the coming years. Therefore, the present study will aim to predict the production scenario of the herbaceous cotton crop by different statistical methods. Herbaceous cotton, therefore, is the target of this research because it is the main type of cotton grown in Brazilian soil. Statistical analysis of production, productivity, and planted area and harvested area data will be used for future projections of this scenario, in addition to comparing and analyzing the forecasting methods chosen after mathematical modeling. These historical data will be collected in databases of national agencies, such as the Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers (ABRAPA), the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA), the National Supply Company (CONAB) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). After the data collection, the data will be plotted in the software Action Stat® and NNQ – Statistics and the forecasts will be made, as well as the comparisons of the methods made through the calculations of error, trend and seasonality.