Estudo da influência das variações climáticas nas ocorrências de doenças cardiovasculares e mortes em adultos e idosos na região metropolitana de Londrina

Abstract

The occurrence of climate change is no longer a novelty between scientists and society, as it is already the object of study of various areas of knowledge. This interest is mainly due to the marked role of man in such changes and due to the direct and indirect interferences that these episodes can cause in society and the environment in general. The variables related to the thermal sensation, the temperature and the relative humidity of the air, are the variables that most directly interfere in the health of the population. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to study the relationship between temperature increase and relative humidity variation with the number of hospitalizations and deaths (cases) due to cardiovascular diseases, stratified by gender and age group. The analysis consisted of testing the Poisson and negative binomial models, commonly used in epidemiological analyzes, and the same models with an adjustment for the proportion of zeros. In addition, we calculated the relative risk of occurrence of disease cases by variation of one unit for the variables selected for the final model. For all the studied groups the negative binomial model with zeros adjustment presented better adjustment, due to the high proportion of zeros in the sample groups. Both men and women in all age groups showed some influence of temperature, and humidity did not present significance. People over 70 years of age were the most affected by temperature variations, while no differences were observed according to gender.