Avaliação da confiabilidade de rede de distribuição de uma concessionária brasileira via método analítico e monte carlo sequencial

Abstract

The power eletrical system needs to operate with safety and quality providing power with as few interruptions as possible. The relevance of perception of energy availability motivates predictive reliability studies, especially in the context of distribution systems. The purpose of this work is to perform the reliability evaluation of a real distribution system using sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. For that, algorithms were developed, using the analytical approach and the sequential Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithms are implemented computationally and applied to a test system, thus generating reliability indexes. With the validation of the methods and algorithms, a new application of the sequential Monte Carlo method is done to a real network. The study results confirm the effectiveness of the approaches and suggest the importance of the contribution of the information provided by the sequential Monte Carlo method to the planning of distribution networks.