Proposta metodológica para estimativa de resíduos de desastres naturais: um estudo de caso

Abstract

Natural disasters are fateful events that affect the population in various ways, causing damage. It is important that studies predict the consequences of such events and their associated waste in order to make post-disaster recovery faster and more efficient given the urgently needed recovery of the environment and the increasing frequency of disasters. The present study aims to propose an estimative method for waste disasters, using as a case study the city of Joinville. In order to reach the proposed objective, the process was divided in two phases: composition of the scenario and preparation for application of the method, and the phase of the calculation method of estimated volumes and their processes. A selection of the study area was done through a scoring process, and the selected region was the Cachoeira River Basin, Joinville, which has the largest number of inhabitants in the entire city and is characterized as a region vulnerable to the disaster of inundation. Coefficients were arbitrated against the variables that would compose the calculation of the waste from natural disaster and thus it was possible to calculate an estimate result. Once this was done, it was concluded that there is a potential for the development of such variables, since the data for performing the calculations is scarce in Brazil, which hinders the accuracy of the method. Deepening the issue can make the method more and more consistent with reality and bring a greater understanding of disaster management, enabling mitigation plans that reduce the negative consequences and impacts of natural disasters in society.