Comparação entre análises determinísticas e probabilísticas de estabilidade de taludes em barragens: estudo de caso

Abstract

Considering the great economic, social and environmental importance and the magnitude of dams, more and more necessary becomes an accurate study of its features for its best performance. Currently, deterministic analyses are very frequently used for obtaining the slope factor of safety. These methods although highly extensive and widespread use, have limitations on their ability considering uncertainties associated with variability of the strength parameters of the component materials involved in the analysis. The probabilistic analyses provide a solution to this problem, however, are less known in technical means. In order to overcome these difficulties, we present in this paper comparison between deterministic analysis, by Bishop Simplified and Spencer methods, and probabilistic, the Monte Carlo simulation, through the case study of a dam in the end-of-construction stability, longterm, earthquake and rapid drawdown, using the Geoslope software. There was also made comparisons of results with national and international standards so that the dam performance is assessed by analyzing the factors within the limits established, if there is collapse danger, or if there is oversizing of the enterprise. It was verified if the dam has its safety factor within the limits set by the standard in all simulations. The simplicity of the application of the probabilistic method, provided that there are available data, was also verified.