Modelo para integrar o custo com consumo de energia elétrica e demanda de potência ao planejamento agregado de produção

Abstract

The constant increase in electricity tariffs as well the obligation of previous contracting of power demand by companies connected to the high voltage electric system, encourage the organizations to improve the energy planning in their production processes. In addition, market uncertainties indicate that only stochastic methods are insufficient to forecast future production demand. From this context, the objective of this work is to propose a model that integrates the cost with electric energy and demand power to the aggregate production planning, considering the uncertainties in the market. The model was applied in a food industry, in a family of crispy french fries. From the data collected, a demand forecast was carried out for later realization of the aggregate planning, using the Holt-Winter forecast model. In sequence, the market uncertainties were treated by the fuzzy method which was applied from the analysis of the demand forecast by the decision maker. Before the modeling of the aggregate planning, the new power demand was calculated and, finally, the verification of the solution of the model was done. The results showed that the suggested model was able to define a power demand that minimized the costs with electric energy and the total costs of the aggregate production planning. The current scenario and the proposed scenario were compared and the model development was analyzed.