Estimativa de custo nos estágios iniciais do desenvolvimento de produtos: uma abordagem ontológica

Abstract

Cost estimation in the early stages of a product are fraught with uncertainties. The conceptual design of product development is characterized by the absence of data, the most critical being costs. The costs impact in the initial phases of the project is low, when discovered in later stages represent great risks. As there are no structured alternatives to obtaining costs in the conceptual phase, the reuse of data from past projects is an alternative discussed in the literature. Knowledge management approaches can search for data, nonexistent in the current phases, in successful earlier projects. The use of ontology is discussed as an approach in generating knowledge stored in a database. The proposed solution seeks to estimate costs based on previous projects. A query is formulated to describe the product function and settings. The ontological model searches the classes, instances, and properties in the database and generates a cost estimation. The costs of the previous project are reused to generate a new agile cost estimate without the need to consult other industry sectors. This dissertation project follows the methodological framework Design Science Research to make partial deliveries up to the final artifact, an ontological model. This proposal has great potential in the industry, considering there are no tools attending the initial phases with the same efficiency.