Proposta de matriz de risco sobre serviços de saneamento básico no Paraná: uma análise na visão ambiental, social e de governança - ESG

Abstract

Achieving universal access to basic sanitation is a major challenge for public policy in Brazil, given the targets set by the New Sanitation Legal Framework. Although Paraná has made progress in service coverage, risks persist regarding sewage treatment, water losses, investment, regulation, regional governance, and territorial inequalities. In this context, the research problem lies in identifying which environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators and risks could jeopardize the achievement of universal sanitation targets within Paraná’s Water and Sewage Micro-regions (MRAEs). The thesis aims to propose an ESG risk matrix capable of identifying, classifying, comparing, and monitoring factors that could compromise the achievement of universal access targets across Paraná’s three MRAEs. This is applied research employing qualitative and semi-quantitative approaches and an exploratorypropositive nature, based on document analysis and secondary data. Documents regarding sanitation regionalization, regional plans, operational data, public databases, and indicators from SNIS/Sinisa, Sanepar, Agepar, and IBGE were analyzed. To classify risks, a Probability × Impact matrix was adapted based on the ABNT NBR ISO/IEC 31010:2021 standard and ESG principles. Indicators were organized into environmental, social, and governance dimensions and linked to risk events, drawing on documentary evidence, sectoral indicators, territorial analysis, and structured technical judgment supported by source triangulation. The results revealed varying levels of ESG risk across the three MRAEs. In the environmental dimension, key risks included sewage treatment, water losses, and territorial/environmental pressure; in the social dimension, risks related to water and sewage service coverage, regional vulnerability, social tariffs, and effective connection rates; and in the governance dimension, risks concerning regional planning and targets, regulation, oversight and transparency, as well as investment, execution, and financial sustainability. The comparison revealed that similar risks present distinct probabilities, impacts, and criticality levels across the MRAEs, due to their specific territorial, social, environmental, and institutional characteristics. It also demonstrated that results aggregated at the micro-regional level can mask inequalities at the municipal level. Application of the matrix showed that universal access is not being achieved uniformly across the territory of Paraná, requiring monitoring tailored to the characteristics of each micro-region. Future application at the municipal level could identify internal inequalities and situations of heightened vulnerability. The study concludes that the proposed ESG risk matrix serves as a methodological tool capable of integrating information, transforming indicators and evidence into risk parameters, identifying criticality levels, comparing MRAEs, and informing priority-setting to meet universal access targets by 2033. Its primary scientific contribution lies in linking – within a single analytical framework – basic sanitation, regionalization, territorial inequalities, risk management, and ESG principles, with the potential for replication at the municipal level and, with adaptations, in other territories and public policy areas.