Método para concepção de cenários em planos de mobilidade urbana

Abstract

The National Urban Mobility Policy (Law No. 12,587/2012) mandates that municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants must prepare Urban Mobility Plans which define the principles, objectives, and guidelines for their formulation. However, these plans currently lack systematized methods that allow for the production of consistent and comparable diagnoses, as well as prognoses that effectively support the definition of strategies and actions. In this context, this research aims to develop a diagnostic and forecasting method applicable to Urban Mobility Plans. The method is grounded in the construction of trend scenarios that integrate mobility indicators, synthetic indices, and vectors of change. The methodological development involved the selection and parameterization of 12 vectors of change, as well as the definition of an indicators system representative of the relationships among land use, infrastructure supply, and mobility demand. Based on these elements, a set of indices was structured along with a framework for parametrization, georeferencing, and projection using Trend Impact Analysis (TIA). TIA allows for the quantification of the potential effect of the vectors on the evolution of the indicators over a defined time horizon. The method was tested in Fazenda Rio Grande, Brazil. The method enabled the characterization of current mobility conditions and the projection of future scenarios under both expected and adverse conditions. The results demonstrated the method’s potential to identify social and spatial patterns, weaknesses, and opportunities for change. This provides robust technical support to guide strategic decisions, plan investments, and improve Urban Mobility Plans (UMPs), making them more comparable and responsive to changes in urban travel patterns.