Análise comparativa de tecnologias de energia oceânica e sua viabilidade econômica: frente à flutuação dos preços de energia

Abstract

The present study analyzed the technical and economic feasibility of wave energy converter systems, focusing on the Tide, AWS (Archimedes Wave Swing), and OWC (Oscillating Water Column) technologies. The research was conducted through simulations in the System Advisor Model (SAM), complemented by financial spreadsheets developed in Microsoft Excel, considering a 30-year time horizon. Six scenarios were evaluated, differing by the inclusion or exclusion of Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs. The main variables analyzed were Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback. The results indicated that the Tide system, without O&M costs, achieved the best performance, with an IRR of 54% and an investment return period of 2 years, demonstrating high profitability. When O&M costs were included, the Tide system presented an IRR of 16% and a Payback of 9 years, still maintaining moderate feasibility. In contrast, the AWS and OWC scenarios, when accounting for O&M, became economically unviable, with negative NPVs and Paybacks exceeding 50 years. It is noteworthy that wave energy holds promising potential; however, its feasibility strongly depends on reducing operational costs, improving converter device efficiency, and implementing incentive policies. These factors are essential for consolidating wave energy as a competitive alternative within the national energy matrix.