Reciclagem de baterias de veículos elétricos no Brasil: diagnóstico atual e desafios frente à expansão do mercado

Abstract

This study analyzes the current structure of the Reverse Logistics (RL) system for Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) used in Light Electric Vehicles (LEVs) in Brazil, comparing it with the well-established Lead-acid Battery (LAB) system, which is characterized by high collection rates, consolidated sectoral governance, and economically viable recycling processes. To estimate the future flow of LIBs in the country, historical vehicle registration data from the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) and the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE) were used and applied to forecasting models based on the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method, enabling projections of fleet growth and the corresponding volume of end-oflife LIBs. Based on these projections, three prospective scenarios were developed: the first assumes full LIB collection; the second incorporates both collection and secondlife applications; and the third is grounded in the premise of a mature circular economy for these batteries. The scenario analysis indicates the need to develop specific regulatory and operationa frameworks for LIBs in Brazil, given the absence of clear targets, limited infrastructure, and ongoing operational risks, challenges already addressed in international references that provide advanced guidelines for traceability, extended producer responsibility, and critical material recovery. Although informed by the consolidated performance of LABs and by regulatory advances observed in international markets such as the United States and China, this study represents a focused segment within a broader and more complex thematic field: the reverse logistics of LIBs involves technological, environmental, economic and social dimensions that extend beyond the scope adopted here, yet are essential for guiding the development of a robust regulatory framework aligned with safety, traceability and circularity in the sector.