Modelagem e framework multiagente para otimização e simulação de cenários de remanejamento de equipes de campo para o restabelecimento de energia em eventos climáticos extremos

Abstract

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs) have amplified impacts on electric power distribution systems, requiring greater operational coordination capacity to restore service. In this context, the allocation and redeployment of field crews become critical factors, as they directly affect response times, costs, and outage-related impacts. This research aimed to propose and apply an agent-based simulation framework to analyze service strategies, cooperation among operational bases, and field crew redeployment during ECEs. The model was implemented in the NetLogo platform, based on multi-agent systems theory, integrating historical meteorological data and operational data from a power distribution utility. The framework represents autonomous agents (crews, operational bases, and incidents), enabling the simulation of response dynamics under four service scenarios: isolated, proximity-based, centralized, and anticipatory. The approach incorporates the conversion of climate information into operational impacts, the formation of emergency demand, and inter-base cooperation rules, enabling scenario comparison under uncertainty. The dissertation was developed through a case study in Paraná (COPEL), considering the geographic distribution of operational bases, road network conditions, crew capacity, and the severity of climate-related impacts. The evaluation was conducted using metrics consolidated in literature and in operational practice, integrated into the simulation environment for comparative performance analysis. The results indicate that the agent-based approach supports the identification of critical decision points, the analysis of cooperation policies among operational bases, and the proposition of operational protocols based on objective criteria, with performance gains in service restoration and response coordination. It is concluded that the proposed agent-based framework contributes to the state of the art in operational resilience of power distribution systems by integrating, within a single analytical environment, climate impacts, emergency demand, cooperation among operational bases, and crew redeployment using consolidated metrics. The case study in Paraná demonstrates the applicability of the approach in a real-world context and its potential for adaptation to other utilities through the parameterization of operational, geographic, and organizational characteristics.