Comparativo entre os investimentos poupança e Tesouro Selic

Abstract

This research aimed to compare the profitability of savings accounts and Treasury Selic bonds. To this end, we sought to understand their differences in terms of profitability, security, liquidity, and applicability within the Brazilian economic context. We collected theoretical and practical information on each modality, highlighting their main characteristics and remuneration mechanisms. Savings accounts are the most traditional investment, offering easy access and being tax-free; their return is defined based on the Reference Rate (TR) and the Selic rate. Treasury Selic bonds are public securities issued by the National Treasury, and their profitability directly follows variations in the basic interest rate of the economy (Selic rate), presenting low risk and high liquidity. We discussed the mathematical models for calculating returns and developed a comparative spreadsheet to numerically analyze the performance of each investment in different Selic rate scenarios. The simulations demonstrated that when the Selic rate is above 9.75% per year, the Selic Treasury bond tends to outperform the Savings Account, even after income tax deductions. Conversely, in periods of lower interest rates, the difference between the two decreases, and the Savings Account proves more advantageous due to its simplicity and lack of taxation. Therefore, we conclude that the Selic Treasury bond presents itself as a more attractive option for investors seeking liquidity and better returns when the Selic rate is above 9.75%, while the Savings Account remains relevant due to its ease of application and low risk, making it suitable for beginner or short-term investors.