Modelagem de nicho ecológico da flora ameaçada no Paraná: comparação entre modelos com e sem variáveis antrópicas

Abstract

This study aimed to compare ecological niche models developed with and without the inclusion of anthropogenic variables, using ten threatened plant species from the state of Paraná, Brazil. The modeling procedures were carried out using the caretSDM script in R language, employing bioclimatic variables derived from the WorldClim 2.1 database and evaluated through metrics such as ROC, TSS, sensitivity, and specificity. The results indicated a high similarity between the models generated in this study and those produced using both anthropogenic and bioclimatic variables, with small punctual differences but no significant changes in the general pattern of potential species distribution. It was observed that excluding anthropogenic variables did not compromise the predictive quality of the models, demonstrating that bioclimatic variables were sufficient to robustly represent the ecological niche of the analyzed species. Furthermore, the inclusion of anthropogenic variables proved capable of generating inconsistent responses, highlighting the need for careful selection of such information. It is concluded that the exclusive use of bioclimatic variables is suitable for studies aimed at understanding natural patterns of environmental suitability, while anthropogenic variables should be applied only in specific and spatially consistent contexts.