Otimização da potência instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos com foco na microgeração distribuída

Abstract

Due to global warming, result of the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, and global policies aimed at mitigating socio-environmental impacts, the need to diversify the energy matrix through renewable sources has intensified. In Brazil, due to the high solar incidence, grid-connected photovoltaic systems (GCPVS) stand out as the most viable alternative to meet consumer demand, ensuring energy security and reliability. This study aims to develop an optimized methodological approach for sizing the installed capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic systems, focused on distributed microgeneration, by maximizing the Net Present Value (NPV), in accordance with the current Brazilian regulatory framework. Additionally, the Extended Multi-Index Methodology (EMIM) was employed to assess the elasticity limits and investment recommendation levels. To ensure its robustness, the proposed method was validated through comparisons with traditional sizing methods. Its applicability was tested in three Brazilian capitals — Curitiba, Recife and Belém — whose tariff and climatic characteristics allowed a comparative analysis of the proposed optimization model. As results, the analysis showed that, in the vast majority of scenarios, grid-connected photovoltaic systems generate a certain amount of expired credits as part of the strategy to maximize the NPV.