Modelagem espaço temporal usando aproximação por Laplace: estudo de caso sobre mortalidade na população feminina e infantil no Estado do Paraná

Abstract

The woman assumes a leading role in the contemporary world and accumulates importance and relevance in society compared to the post-World War II period, her lifestyle and habits have changed. Among the consequences of this dynamic, some habits have worsened leading to the development of many diseases, among them the most common are cardiovascular diseases, stroke, cancer and fibroids. So, there has been an increase in female mortality rates. It is not very different for infant mortality, although its indicator in Brazil is much lower than the global average, it is far below the average of developed countries. With this, a study that seeks to understand the situation and problems involved, based on data from official sources, provides an argumentative basis to propose solutions that are useful and impactful in people's lives, in terms of verifying the induction of public policies for women and children. Based on the available data, a study of these mortalities will be carried out between the years 2009 and 2019 in the state of Paraná using space-time analysis and the INLA approach. Among the results obtained, it can be observed with the initial description and the thematic maps that the female and infant mortality rates have decreased in general, but to understand which indicators are related to this phenomenon, space-time modeling using approximation by Laplace was crucial, showing that indicators related to education such as illiteracy, and related to income such as unemployment and child labor, were crucial to understanding this correlation. Allied to the understanding of the indicators that influence mortality rates, it is possible to support both the maintenance and the creation of new public policies to mitigate this public health issue in the state of Paraná.