Simulação de cenários aplicada ao controle de estoque em uma empresa do comércio ambulante de livros

Abstract

This study aims to develop a strategic plan to optimize inventory management in a mobile book trade company, using scenario simulation as a decision-making support tool. A descriptive and qualitative case study was conducted, with scenario projections for the years 2024 and 2025 based on historical data from 2022 and 2023. The research included semi-structured interviews with the five individuals responsible for the company’s strategic sectors. The results indicated significant challenges in inventory management, such as the lack of automated tools, reliance on manual methods, and difficulties related to regional demand variations. Based on Rojo’s (2005) scenario forecasting model, three scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic) were simulated, allowing managers to anticipate challenges and plan appropriate strategic actions. The implementation of these strategies led to improvements in order replenishment accuracy, a reduction in losses due to excess or stock shortages, and better alignment with trends in the book market. It is concluded that the use of scenario simulation strengthens the company’s competitiveness, enhances operational efficiency, and provides greater decision-making security.