Um estudo temporal estatístico da distribuição de precipitação em regiões do estado do Paraná

Abstract

This study examines historical trends in rainy days and rainfall intensity in five regions of the state of Paraná, using data provided by the Agronomic Institute of Paraná (IAPAR) from 24 meteorological stations. Understanding these climate patterns is essential for regional climate understanding and has significant implications for socioeconomic development. The applied statistical analysis reveals temporal trends, highlighting precipitation patterns over time. The data were meticulously filtered to ensure their integrity, eliminating inevitable gaps in observations from meteorological stations. The focus of the analysis was exclusively on meteorological parameters, providing a solid foundation for further investigation into the consequences of changes in precipitation patterns and rainfall intensity. Classic analysis methods were employed, such as moving average, median moving average, linear regression, LOWESS, and Mann-Kendall-Sen. The results reveal predominantly negative trends in most of the evaluated regions, including North, Northwest, West, West-Central, and South-Central. However, regarding rainy days, positive trends were observed in the North, West, and Southwest. Regarding rainfall intensity, none of the regions showed statistically significant trends in all analyzed stations, indicating a relative stability in this aspect.