Riscos de espécies nativas na Mata Atlântica sob mudanças climáticas: o caso da jabuticabeira [Plinia peruviana (Poir.) Govaerts]

Abstract

One of the countless impacts projected by climate change will be the redistribution of species on the planet. The projections for the Atlantic Forest biome species in Brazil are no different. Species will suffer habitat modification, such as the case of the native Myrtaceae species with a high potential for cultivation, the jabuticaba tree (Plinia peruviana). Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the potential distribution of the jaboticaba tree in the present (historical climate data between 1970-2000) and in climate change scenarios (short, medium, and long term), using the Species Distribution Modeling approach. We used occurrence data of the species (latitude and longitude) combined with climate data (1970 - 2000) and projections for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090 in two global warming scenarios (SSP): SSP2-4.5 and SPP3-7.0 and including four global climate models, all climatic data were available on the WorldClim platform. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to generate the current distribution of the species and the projection of potential redistribution in future scenarios. The effect of the main abiotic variables that explain the spatiotemporal redistribution patterns and the bioclimatic characterization in each time series in the different scenarios were also estimated. 225 models were generated, of which seven were significant according to the pROC test. The selected model showed that by the end of this century, the potential distribution of the species should decrease by 32.6% and 39.8% considering SSP2 and SSP3, respectively, and being compared to the current area. The main variable explaining the model was the rainfall of the driest month (Bio14), demonstrating the species' vulnerability to locations with recurrent dry periods. Consequently, water availability will influence the restriction of the species' potential niche to areas with higher rainfall in the Mixed Ombrophyllous Forest in southern Brazil and in the Dense Ombrophyllous Forest on the coast of Bahia and São Paulo. Likewise, the distribution pattern towards lower altitudes was denoted, contrary to what is expected of most species in the face of climate change (i.e. redistribution or restriction of the potential niche towards higher elevations). To counteract the possible reduction in the area of occurrence of jaboticaba trees in Brazil, we proposed a conservation plan that includes collaborative management in Indigenous populations and local communities (IP&LC), economic incentives for local smallholders, natural regeneration assessment in the research sector, and reforestation programs in order to maintain the species resilient in the face of climate change.