Transição energética rumo a cidades sustentáveis: estudo de caso do Oeste Paranaense

Abstract

The paper explores the energy transition towards sustainable cities, focusing on replacing the municipal public transport fleet in Western Paraná with vehicles powered by ethanol or electricity, with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions. The main objective is to evaluate the forecasts and impacts of replacing the diesel bus fleet with more sustainable alternatives. The methodology includes identifying the public transport fleet in each municipality, calculating the associated CO2 emissions, analyzing the municipal vegetation cover and calculating the potential for CO2 capture by local vegetation. A CO2 mass balance is also performed and the initial costs of implementing new technologies are assessed, in addition to the Municipal Investment Potential. The analysis revealed that replacing buses with ethanol is financially viable for some municipalities, mainly due to the lower initial cost and the existing ethanol infrastructure in Brazil. On the other hand, electrification of the fleet, although more efficient in reducing CO2 emissions, faces significant financial challenges. Many municipalities do not have sufficient resources to bear the costs of electrification without external financial support. The carbon sequestration analysis indicated that, in some cases, local vegetation can partially offset CO2 emissions. However, achieving robust carbon neutrality requires a combination of emissions reduction and increased vegetation cover. The study concludes that, despite the importance of the energy transition for reducing CO2 emissions in Western Paraná, full fleet electrification faces significant economic barriers. Replacing buses with ethanol is a more viable alternative in the short term, especially for municipalities with greater investment capacity. Future studies should focus on the economic feasibility of electrification and the use of ethanol combined with other renewable energy sources to improve the efficiency and sustainability of public transport.