Gerenciamento do risco de custo: simulação de Monte Carlo aplicada ao serviço de superestrutura de obras prisionais

Abstract

Problems related to the mismanagement of resources earmarked for the design and completion of public works projects are recurrent and lead to setbacks such as contracting failures, overpricing, abandonment and even stoppage of services, negatively influencing the purposes of these public works in the field of Civil Engineering. In this way, the further a project progresses, the greater the costs incurred in making changes and repairs to the services already carried out. For a project to succeed, it is important that parameters relating to cost, scope, schedule and quality are met. Risk management can be used to ensure that these parameters are met, as well as increasing the likelihood of positive risk events occurring in projects. With this in mind, 39 socio-educational units were selected, located in the countryside and in the capital of the state of São Paulo (SP), belonging to the Fundação Casa (Center for Socio-Educational Assistance to Adolescents), which served as parameters for this study. In this way, it was proposed the application of Monte Carlo Simulation as a probabilistic quantitative analysis tool for the cost risk linked to the execution of the superstructure service and for its most relevant input, obtained by drawing up an ABC Curve. In addition, with the help of parametric estimation for the cost of the superstructure service and the quantity of material used,1000 different scenarios were simulated for the two objects of study in this work. It is hoped that by creating these scenarios, results will be obtained that can help managers make decisions about the possibility of carrying out future services for socio-educational units.