Análise das influências globais do mercado do petróleo nos eixos de produção, governabilidade e qualidade de vida entre 1990 e 2020

Abstract

It is evident that the petroleum market encompasses a range of political, demographic, cultural, and predominantly economic influences, necessitating a careful examination of certain variables that allow for a detailed analysis of scenarios and practices, taking into consideration the historical and environmental trajectories of each country. This research aims to evaluate the correlation between governance, production and quality of life criteria in countries considered to be the largest oil producers worldwide. Utilizing data gathered from the World Bank Group, International Energy Agency (IEA), and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) databases, this research facilitates statistical analysis to ascertain the variables that most significantly accentuate or stagnate within this market, thereby directly impacting these nations. These variables have been categorized based on characteristics belonging to three principal groups that align with the research scope: Governance, Production, and Quality of Life in the petroleum market. This allows for the application of statistical techniques that correlate the actions within this market. As a statistical method, after defining the methodology of this study, variable separations along research axes were conducted, encompassing Spearman correlation analysis, Shapiro-Wilk tests, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and finally, canonical distribution verification, to achieve a better conception of these axes. Notable findings within the Production axis reveal that the variables exhibit normality, particularly when interconnected with Oil Profitability, considering the percentage index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumption of energy derived from fossil fuels (% of total); there is a positive correlation between Crude Oil, Gasoline, Diesel, and Fuel Oil Production and potential hindrances related to indicators and their relationship with the commercial US Dollar (USD), as discussed in economic literature. The statistical relationship for the Production variables was deemed significant (p = 0.842). Subsequently, within the Governance axis, specific highly significant correlations were observed, such as between the variables Government Effectiveness (Estimate), General government final consumption expenditure (US$ at current prices), and Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism. Once again, the statistical significance for the summarized model was affirmed by the R-squared value (R = 0.951), rendering this discussion noteworthy for the petroleum market as well. Similarly, within the Quality of Life-oriented analysis axis, the most significant correlation finding, although the correlation overall exhibited p = 0.107 and emphasized a moderate-to-strong significance, can be synthesized through the correlation between Life Expectancy and Human Development Index (HDI) as one of the most evident points within this axis. Following this examination of axes, the alignment of canonical data became possible through the verification of the relationship between variables and the investigated countries, allowing for a general understanding that China, the United States, and Canada exhibited the most significant outliers when correlating the variables of Production, Governance, and Quality of Life. Theoretical and practical implications of this research can be described as follows: in terms of literary intersection and comprehension of axes and elements that support the development of countries and this market as a whole; and through a more robust statistical understanding and the establishment of policies and tools that can assist in meeting the needs of this market on a regional and global scale. It is important to recognize and align the complexity of correlations between these variables and the research subjects, where intervening variables can serve as a framework and continuity (or discontinuity) of the research, such as political, demographic, geographical, and diplomatic aspects that are intrinsically linked to this market.