Análise do impacto de estratégias de vacinação contra COVID-19 em municípios brasileiros

Abstract

On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared the Covid-19 pandemic. In this context, vaccines against Covid-19 were developed in record time and have proven effective in reducing serious cases and deaths, with the first vaccine against Covid-19 applied in Brazil on January 17, 2021. Despite the beginning of vaccination, Brazil reached the mark of 500,000 deaths in June 2021, with vaccination strategies varying by states and municipalities, prioritizing different groups and age groups of the population, and presenting several logistical and dissemination problems, affecting coverage efficiency. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of vaccination strategies on the numbers of deaths in Brazilian municipalities in the initial period of vaccination. The analyzes used data made available by the Ministry of Health regarding the pandemic and vaccination against Covid-19 and were based on models built to assess the impact of vaccination by groups of care and the speed of vaccination of the elderly population. The results obtained show that (I) there were no significant deviations in the prioritization of groups to the point of affecting the efficiency of the vaccination campaign; and (II) that faster and more equitable vaccination of the elderly population would lead to a significant reduction in mortality.