Análise de investimentos em geração distribuída fotovoltaica: estudo de múltiplos casos

Abstract

This work addresses the economic feasibility analysis linked to investment projects in photovoltaic solar energy. As a main focus, the research seeks to analyze the economic indicators related to investments in photovoltaic energy projects in operation considering different scenarios for each one, in addition to evaluating how the impacts of Law 14,300 would be in each situation. The methodology used was based on identifying photovoltaic systems in operation in three distinct segments: residential, commercial and industrial. Through the generation records obtained through the inverter software and the investment information obtained directly from the consumer, a cash flow was developed for each case. The analysis was carried out with the aid of the SAVEPI® web application, which made it possible to apply the Extended Multi- Index Methodology (MMIA) for the deterministic evaluation based on investment information. Additionally, the Monte Carlo Simulation (SMC) was used for a stochastic evaluation, making it possible to evaluate variations in initial investment, cash flow and TMA throughout the period of analysis, based on statistical distributions over the investment horizon, making it possible to understand the impacts that variations in initial investment, cash flow, and minimum rate of attractiveness result in the investment project. As a result of the research, it was observed that the residential system presented a positive return indicator, proving to be profitable prospecting R$ 7,272.66 in the best scenario. However, variations in cash flow or rate of return make the project unfeasible, being characterized as medium risk. Thus, the SMC was applied to stochastically analyze the effects of the variation of only TMA, applying a triangular probabilistic distribution of this input along the analysis horizon resulting in a maximum profit of R$ 7.159,50. At the same time, the commercial project proved to be an investment with a great return, with the observed profit of R$ 172,639.34 for the best scenario and with high acceptance of variation related to cash flow, which presented 68.33% of the value used as basis of calculation in the best evaluated scenario. Similarly, in the economic feasibility analysis of the industrial case, it was observed that the project is viable for the consumer, even if the energy values paid by him are lower in relation to the previous cases, due to his contracting of energy, and in the best evaluated scenario, the observed profit was R$ 265,935.21 among all analyzed scenarios. In short, it was concluded that variations in rates of return, cash flow and initial investment cause significant impacts on investments, thus, the use of the MMIA allowed quantifying this influence by pointing out the limits of variation for each of the cases. From the indicators, it was possible to provide subsidies demonstrating the viability of each case studied. Additionally, the SMC applied using SAVEPI made it possible to stochastically quantify the impacts of changes in inputs on the viability of investment projects.