A (in)sustentabilidade financeira dos municípios brasileiros e possíveis efeitos no desenvolvimento local: uma proposta para caracterização

Abstract

Considering the specificities of Brazilian Federalism, structured in three levels – Union, State and Municipalities – in which municipalities are also entities endowed with autonomy, independence and responsibilities, discussions about the sustainability and/or financial viability of municipalities with low population quotient emerge. Further encouraging the discussion, in 2019 the Proposal for amendment to the constitution 188 was prepared, which proposes the incorporation of small municipalities considered unsustainable. In view of the above, this Thesis has as its central theme the Financial Sustainability of Brazilian municipalities and possible effects on Local Development. The general objective of the research is to propose a methodology for characterizing the Financial (un)Sustainability of Brazilian municipalities with the possibility of measurement aligned with local development. The proposed thesis is that the Financial Sustainability of Municipalities should not be measured only by the formula proposed by Proposal for amendment to the constitution 188/2019, but rather, consider other elements – such as: local development; development indices; other resources that make up the total budget of the municipality; and quality of life – formalized by a structured methodology. The study was structured in seven chapters. The first and seventh are intended for Introduction and General Conclusion. The remaining five chapters are structured in multipaper format with scientific articles endowed with thematic interrelation, which will contribute to the achievement of the specific objectives and the answers of the study. The multipaper format brings a collection of publishable articles, accompanied by an introductory chapter and final remarks. It is worth mentioning the sixth chapter, because it is the “product” of the Thesis, it highlights the methodology that characterizes the Financial (un)Sustainability of municipalities, materialized through the Municipal Financial Sustainability Index – MFSI(ISFM). The methodological procedures adopted for the study, in essence, are based on bibliographic research using a bibliometric survey, documental research using descriptive statistics and measures of correlation and linear regression. As the main results found, it was evidenced that the methodology proposed by PEC 188 is fragile, needs improvement, and if there is an eventual enactment, it may lead to the incorporation, and consequent “extinction”, of approximately 1,224 small Brazilian municipalities. The MFSI(ISFM) is more robust compared to the methodology proposed by proposed amendment to the constitution 188. The Index was prepared considering three major dimensions: Budgetary-Financial; Governance; Quality of life; and was applied to 5,570 Brazilian municipalities – in the periods of 2015 and 2016.The national average of the ISFM result resulted in 0.56 (56%), maintaining this percentage among small municipalities. The largest share of Brazilian municipalities classified themselves as “Sustainable”, 61%-63%. Finally, the statistical analyzes showed that there is a positive correlation between the variables ISFM and Local Development (Firjan Municipal Development Index), presenting statistically significant results.