Simulação do impacto das mudanças climáticas sob às vazões afluentes da Uhe Bento Munhoz da Rocha Netto (Foz do Areia)

Abstract

The frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events, such as droughts, has increased in several meteorological regions of the planet. These studies increase the variation and temperature of the air. The quantification of vital climate changes under the Brazilian energy sector, because its energy matrix is mainly constituted by plants. In Brazil, there are few studies on the quantification of climate effects under the quantification of climate effects and electricity using global climate models over the State of Paraná, mainly in the State of Paraná. Based on this context, the main objective of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on the tributary flows of HPP Bento Munhoz Da Rocha Neto (Foz do Areia). The Foz do Areia basin is a sub-basin of the Iguaçu River, located in the State of Paraná, southern Brazil. A 10- year historical series (1999-2008) of the daily series was used for calibration and an 11-year series (2009 - 2019) was used to validate the concentrate-vapour hydrological model. The simulation was performed using the hydrological model HY 2, through the automatic configuration with (S-UA) a K greater than 0 was obtained, performed in both configuration8 and validation periods. Journal and administration data were provided in transfers from Brazilian agencies and universities. Next, there were two future scenarios of simulated future deliveries (2021-2040, were 202041-2070 and 071-209), based on future projections and temperature. Two design levels of the IP6 design of the Climate Change CM Temperature Panel (IPCC) were adopted by Intergoverns (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Scenarios were used to assess changing trends in inflows, (Q) ̅ monthly, Q95 and Q90, from the Fo plant. , from the Foz do plant. The results found indicate a large variation in the basin's rainfall regimes, projecting months of the year with greater accumulated rainfall and other months with a much smaller volume. In the annual averages, in general, the results indicated a decrease of more than 50% of the reference flows Q95 and Q90 in both scenarios analyzed. The results of the Mann-Kendall test also indicated a strong trend towards a decrease in the monthly (Qm) ̅, indicating that the volumes of water within the basin will be lower for the next 80 years, especially in the less rainy months (March to August). With these results it is estimated that there will be a decrease in water volumes and consequently a decrease in the power generation capacity of the Foz do Areia plant.