Análise de viabilidade econômica e incertezas de um modelo de negócio de sistema fotovoltaico em condomínio residencial

Abstract

The generation of energy from renewable sources is a topic that has gained importance over the years. Several countries have sought to make a transition to the use of renewable sources, and solar energy is one of those that receive the most investments, as unlike other sources, it does not necessarily need the construction of large plants and allows for distributed generation. New business models are being explored and lack economic feasibility analysis and interpretation of uncertainties and risks associated with photovoltaic energy generation in different scenarios. In this sense, this work aimed to evaluate the economic feasibility and uncertainties associated with the variables of installation projects and outsourced photovoltaic energy supply in a condominium building. The study carried out a feasibility analysis using indicators such as NPV, IRR and Payback Time and found that small changes in project variables can have large impacts on its return potential. For uncertainty and risk analysis, Risk v 8.1 [trade mark] software was used. Sensitivity analyzes involved the following variables: energy price, number of condominium exchanges and residual value of panels. The results of this study allowed us to conclude that the impacts of smaller contracts, which involve condominium exchanges, can increase the project's risk.