Variações de indicadores baseados na contabilidade versus variação nos preços das ações: há correlação?

Abstract

With the need to leverage business growth, companies need financial resources, one option is to go public through B3, selling company shares to investors, who, to earn profits, will seek to identify good investment opportunities and for that, they need information and tools to help in the decision making. An alternative used is the fundamental analysis, which checks the performance of the company's results through the financial statements disclosed and the variation in share prices. This study sought to investigate the existence of a correlation between stock price variation and the variation of four performance indicators: Net Income, ROA, ROE and P/VPA over a long-term period, from 2011 to 2020, in 8 companies of B3, in the BOVA11 asset portfolio, with a weight of more than 2%. After collecting the data and verifying the variations, the Share Price versus Indicators correlations were calculated, using the Microsoft Office Excel software, which uses the Pearson correlation technique, to identify the existence of correlation, and then compile the data into a single table evidencing the maximum, average and minimum correlations found in the samples by index. After the compilation, it was found that among those indicators, the one that stood out was the P/VPA, with a minimum correlation of 0.93 and, in general, of the 32 correlations obtained, 25 were positive, equivalent to 78,13% of the sample analyzed, demonstrating that there is a positive correlation between indicators and stock prices.