Criminalidade e pandemia: uma análise do Impacto da COVID-19 na incidência de crimes em Curitiba

Abstract

Covid-19, an acute respiratory infection discovered in China, has spread around the world in a few months. The disease hasn’t only impacted the economy, public health, urban mobility, drastically increased unemployment, but also the public security. Public agents, in order to prevent the proliferation of the virus, had to decree the closure of schools, parks, churches, shops and any event or place that could generate agglomeration. As a result of this routine change in cities, the behavior of crimes tends to change, and understanding this change is of fundamental importance for combative actions to be carried out efficiently. This study analyzes the impact of the pandemic and, consequently, of social isolation on the incidence of crimes in Curitiba, in particular theft, illegal substances and violence, with an emphasis on domestic violence. Exploratory analysis techniques, time series analysis and two linear regression models are used to understand this impact. It was identified that occurrences related to violence increased during the isolation period. A possible explanation may be the fact that the aggressor and victim spend more time together in the same environment. In the same period, but in the opposite way, the records of burglary and robbery were lower. This drop can be explained by the presence of residents in their homes for a longer time than usual. Occurrences related to illegal substances had no significant impact.