Quantificação da incerteza do modelo de proddle via metodologia fast crack bounds

Abstract

The study of a structural component is more realistic when it is admitted that the component already has cracks. The area that studies this phenomenon is the fracture mechanics. The component which is cracked and subjected to cyclic stresses tends to fail due to fatigue. This study presents upper and lower bounds that "envelop" the approximate numerical solution of the evolution of the crack. The statistical moments of the upper and lower bounds are estimated, to obtain more realistic results in relation to the crack propagation, considering the existence of uncertainty about the parameters of the evolution models of the crack. Upper and lower bounds are determined using the Fast Crack Bounds methodology, being compared to the approximate numerical solution obtained by the fourth-order RungeKutta method. The randomization of the model parameters and execution through the Monte Carlo Simulation. For the quantification of the uncertainty, the upper and lower bounds and the numerical solution, "classic" examples of fracture mechanics are considered, where the correction function of the tensile strength factor is known: Infinite width plate, finite width plate a centered crack and finite width plate a bordercracked. The work presents the relative deviations of the first and second statistical moments, as well as the computational gains in solving the initial value problem that describe the propagation of the crack. In all cases analyzed, the Fast Crack Bounds methodology presented lower computational time when compared to the numerical solution of the problem, being at least 411.23% more effective for the parameter a0 , up to 8,296.29% for the parameter KC .