Interpretações de probabilidade contempladas nas coleções de matemática do PNLD 2021 para o novo ensino médio

Abstract

In this work data and information about the specific content of probability and its possible interpretations present in the ten collections of Mathematics approved under the National Textbook Program - 2021 for the New High School, within of Notice 03/2019, referring to Object 2 - Works by area of knowledge: specific works are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. These works were submitted for evaluation in the first semester of 2021, made available for the choice of schools in the second semester of 2021, to be distributed to the public basic education network in Brazil in 2022. The main purpose of the study is aimed at identifying and describing characteristics of the collections in order to subsidize the didactic instrumentalization concerning the use of the works from the next year, regarding the probability theme. Considering that to the student the textbook is the main source of access to elaborated scientific knowledge and for the teacher it represents the main teaching resource available to guide their teaching work, from the analysis of these works, we tried to identify which among the probability interpretations: classical, frequentist, geometric and subjective, were included in the texts. The quantitative data collected refer to the number of pages intended to deal with the topic in each specific volume of the collection, number of solved exercises presented, number of proposed exercises and the number of exercises aimed at the National High School Exam and entrance exam. From these data, tables and graphics were generated in order to support comparisons and conclusions. In the qualitative aspect, the treated probability content was analyzed, regarding the nature of the sample spaces involved and concerning the presence or not of the indicated probability interpretations. It was observed that all collections include a classical interpretation of probability from discrete sample spaces. The frequentist approach is treated in seven collections, some in a complete way and others only in exercises. On the other hand, subjective interpretation is dealt with in only one text, while geometric interpretation is absent from all texts. From the collected data, it is concluded that to attend the guidelines contained in the Common National Curriculum Base, which recommends that the student should be able to identify the existence of different types of, discrete or not, sampling spaces, of different interpretations and implications for the probability calculation, any of the ten collections that is going to be adopted by the school from 2022, should have its text complemented with information regarding the different approaches of this content, as well as complementing the list of exercises aimed at fixing the contents.