Análise da influência dos gastos públicos de municípios do Paraná em relação a probabilidade de reeleição dos prefeitos

Abstract

Studies indicate that political managers tend to plan spending for the municipalities they lead in order to maximize their chance of re-election. Such behavior is at odds with the functions of a political leader, who must plan spending in a way that values the maximum well-being of the population, never using his power for self-promotion purposes. In light of this, the present study sought to analyze public spending in the municipalities of the state of Paraná during the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 to identify whether the movement of these values in the pre-election period or whether the political position of the mayor ( a) your probability of re-election or victory of your coalition increases. To this end, an analysis of public spending in municipalities in the state of Paraná was proposed in relation to the 2016 electoral result using the logistic regression model. The collection of data regarding municipal public expenditures was made through the transparency portals of all municipalities in Paraná, as well as through the portal of the Superior Electoral Court. Methodologically, it is a quantitative, descriptive study and uses documentary research as a means. For dependent variables, municipalities were separated according to the electoral result between reelected and non-reelected, whereas for independent variables, public spending was used during the analysis periods. In the databases, the values collected were normalized in order to reduce the nominal differences in municipal spending. Dummy variables were included in the study, referring to the political position of the candidates for re-election or their coalitions. Using the statistical software SPSS, it was possible to perform the analysis of the precision of the binary logistic regression method from steps elaborated by the stepwise method (Wald). The model generated was validated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. The main results indicate that there is a relationship between the probability of reelection in the municipalities that spent on health, education and other current expenses in the years 2015 and 2016, with influences between 0.4% and 40% on the electoral result within the proposed analysis, suggesting that the handling of such expenditures in the electoral period can influence the result of the election.