Análise de risco em investimentos na revitalização de shopping center por meio da utilização de simulação de Monte Carlo

Abstract

The scenario of shopping malls has been passed through several modifications due economic recession, restriction in the purchasing power of the population and changes in consumption habits. Thereby, investors have opted for the modernization and expansion of existing enterprises instead of opening new spaces, allowing the emergence of a new challenge, which are the risks facing decisions of investment, since those are not approached by the economic viability researches widely known. This research aims to establish a risk analysis methodology for shopping mall investment, offering four distinct models for analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel software to validate the proposed data. With the results, a discussion is made about the most assertive decision of investment into account the particularities of the enterprises.