Previsão por modelos de séries temporais do licenciamento de veículos elétricos no Brasil

Abstract

The concern about environmental issues has been recurring for years, but the environmental impacts of each action have become a major concern only in the past few years. The role of companies that embrace this cause is to search for alternatives to their products or services that cause the least impact as possible without compromising the quality of what is offered. In the automotive sector, a considerable alternative is the production of electric vehicles, which operate through electric power and abandon the combustion enginees. In this type of vehicle, its operation occurs with the use of electric energy that is stored in a battery, different from traditional vehicles, which are moved by the combustion of air and fuels, resulting in the atmospheric emission of gases such as CO, CO2, HC, O3, SO2, NOx and Particulate Matter. This change in the vehicles structure eliminates the emission of gases during the automobiles’ operation, which reduces the environmental impacts that they cause on a daily basis. Using the ARIMA(0,1,1) model, the number of electric vehicles licensed in Brazil was forecasted based on licensing data for other types of automobile vehicles, on the fuels production, and on the amount of vehicle CO2. The forecast shows that there was a growth in electric vehicles licensed in the country, even with the drop caused during the Covid-19 pandemic. This forecast indicates that the Brazilian electric vehicle market will be able to recover and overcome the damage suffered in the pandemic. This scenario validates the effectiveness of the Rota 2030 Project until the year 2025.