Sistemática de previsão de resultado baseada em cenários aplicada em uma operadora de plano de saúde de pequeno porte do Paraná

Abstract

In an increasingly competitive and regulated market, health plan operators need strategies that make it possible to give them competitive advantages over competitors in the market. Accounting offers managers financial statements that point to the numbers of the past, which makes it difficult to achieve effective strategies for the future of the company. The main objective of this work is to apply the Scenario Based Results Forecasting Systematic, developed by Casagrande (2010), to verify its effectiveness in a small health insurance operator in Paraná, to predict the company's results for the next 3 years. The research was carried out with the analysis of documentary data and mainly of the responses of a focus group composed by the managers of the analyzed operator. With the application of the systematic, the focus group identified the main variables that may impact the company's revenues, costs and expenses in the coming years and determined the degree of impact in percentages of the variables on the 2019 base year results using the declared preference technique. Finally, it was possible to calculate the regression equations for revenues, costs and expenses, calculating the result forecast using the scenarios predicted by the managers for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. The expected results for the company in those years form respectively R$ 1,509,919.00, R$ 575,221.00 and R$ (726,334.00). The considerations related to previous studies and the managers' perception showed that the tool is effective for forecasting results based on scenarios. As a strong point, the identification of the variables as the greatest potential impact on the operator's results, the quantitative measurement of the potential of each variable and the construction of linear regression equations that make it possible to project the results according to the scenarios predicted by the managers stood out for the next 3 years.