Modelos de previsão de insolvência: estudo em empresas de capital aberto em processo de recuperação judicial

Abstract

The closure of a company's activities due to financial difficulties and instabilities produces social and economic impacts that expand and affect employees, creditors, consumers and the government. The following study aims to analyze the variations in the application of the insolvency forecast models in companies listed in B3, which are in the process of judicial recovery.The research is characterized as descriptive, documentary, with qualitative-quantitative approach. Elisabetsky (1976), Kanitz (1978), Matias (1978), Altman, Baidya and Dias (2005) were used to calculate the liquidity and activity indicators of selected companies. 1979) and Sanvicente and Minardi (1998), the method used to analyze the data was descriptive statistics.The study was based on variables collected from the accounting statements of 17 companies that were evidenced in the notes to the financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2017, which are in the process of judicial recovery. The period analyzed was from 2012 to 2017. Liquidity indicators show that most companies do not have the capacity to pay off their debts, confirming that companies are facing financial difficulties. Activity indicators show that companies may have difficulties with cash flow. The models of Elisabetsky (1976), Matias (1978), Altman, Baidya and Dias (1979) and Sanvicente and Minardi (1998), classified most companies as insolvent, while the Kanitz (1978) model classified most companies as solvents. It is concluded that the application of the models assists in the identification of a predisposition to insolvency, however, these results should be analyzed jointly with the other accounting statements and indicators of the company, so that they can serve as support in the decision-making process of the organization.